Jason & Scot Show Episode 250 – Recap of Holiday 2020

A weekly podcast with the latest e-commerce news and events. Episode 250 is a recap of the holiday commerce season, an update on #shipageddon, and other news from December.

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This week we recap the commerce results for Holiday 2020 (including the data sources you can use to get a read for yourself), give an update on #shipageddon, and cover some industry news.

• November Retail Sales Aren’t As Ominous As You Think Jason’s article in Forbes, recaping the results we’ve seen through November.
• Consumer Trends 2021 report – Dan Frommer’s recap of 2020 consumer trends (highly recommended).
• MasterCard Spending Pulse

Shipageddon Recap:

Episode 250 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded live on Thursday, January 7th, 2021.

Transcript

Jason:
[0:40] Hey Jason and welcome back Jason’s got.

Scot:
[0:42] Jason’s got show listeners happy New Year Jason it’s a new year and you actually said.

Jason:
[0:47] Said the wrong year in the intro so we need to we need to jolt your brain bring it back back into 2021 here get you out of the.

Scot:
[0:54] 2020 one here get you out of the.

Jason:
[0:56] Time traveling hot tub.

[1:05] The grace period ended on the 7th at about 9 p.m. so.
What did you have a it’s been been a long time already so.

Scot:
[1:24] The 250 episodes we do about 50 a year so that feels like we’ve been at this about five years of.

[1:42] Yeah I think have outlasted.

Jason:
[1:42] Have outlasted your wife at this point we’re pretty close if I recall sticks.

[2:01] Yeah if you can survive covid then you can survive anything the also you get to.

Scot:
[2:05] The also you get to update your slide and say if you enjoy this talk there’s 250 hours.

Jason:
[2:09] 250 hours of me out on the internet.

[2:17] It’s a chuckle errands like did you have a good holiday.

[2:54] Cool and I saw you updated your profile picture everywhere that got a lot of lot of chatter out on the interwebs so that was good you you’re actually smiling in your new.

Scot:
[3:01] Actually smiling in your new profile picture that’s.

Jason:
[3:30] The good news is you haven’t changed your Zoom Avatar so I’m sitting here looking at Good Ol.

Scot:
[3:36] 2020 scally Jason or just the one I’ve.

Jason:
[3:36] Sally Jason would just the one I’ve known for five years so I’m going to stick with.

[3:56] The one of the character chur kind of things.

[4:29] That’s very cool did you get any fun.

Scot:
[4:31] Any fun gadgets.

Jason:
[4:33] To report on for for the listeners.

[4:50] Yes.

[5:58] So it’s true.

Scot:
[5:59] Transparent so you’re looking through the.

Jason:
[6:00] You’re looking through the camera and the camera can’t see it.

[6:26] Brickell.

[7:36] Zell.

Scot:
[7:39] Oh oh am I rlu.

Jason:
[7:40] Mayer L you and I okay cool awesome to some good new stuff there.

Scot:
[7:59] To a beachy destination sir.

Jason:
[8:00] A beachy destinations that was good got a little we’re here in the.

Scot:
[8:04] The very cold North.

Jason:
[8:05] Carolina so we’re get down before T so we had to escape that warm weather which was good and.
There yeah we are we are pretty 10 and then on the gadget side I am I’m like eight steps below you I finally get it.
Kind of more modern dlsr without a mirror that I can do better streaming with so I’ve been having fun trying to get the firmware update on that that’s been an adventure.

Scot:
[8:35] A lot of Mandalorian stuff including a baby Yoda you want to say.

Jason:
[8:38] That’s amazing.

[8:51] My name is Greg ooh so that was good.

Scot:
[8:54] That was good yeah so it was it was great.

Jason:
[8:57] And then.

Scot:
[8:59] PS 5 and I.

Jason:
[8:59] S5 and I got an Xbox x so we’re caught up on the consoles which is good I always like to keep those current and so that’s been left on.

[9:19] They did a really good job on that with the industrial design and the online components and all that jazz so that is actually getting more play than the Xbox right now.
Then there was a.

Scot:
[9:31] There was a software guy who was really fascinating to watch this.

Jason:
[9:33] It was really fascinating to watch this cyberpunk debacle have you tracked this you probably did yeah so they they release this game there was all this.

Scot:
[9:40] Release this game there was all this.

Jason:
[9:42] And then it was so buggy that Sony actually if anyone bought it through the online portal or through the Sony Channel if you will they refunded everybody even kind of.

Scot:
[9:54] Unbeknownst to the game.

Jason:
[9:55] Developer and that caused a whole Rift between them and the game developers working hard the.

Scot:
[10:02] It’s a classic.

Jason:
[10:02] Example of better sometimes we fall into this go fast and break.

Scot:
[10:06] Sometimes we fall into this go fast and Break Stuff mindset but this was one of those.

Jason:
[10:09] But this was one of those times when that did not work.

Scot:
[10:22] But there are some fun YouTube.

Jason:
[10:24] There’s a lot to learn about this just Google cyberpunk bugs and you’ll be.

Scot:
[10:27] Bugs and you’ll be driving your little car around.

Jason:
[10:30] And you’ll end up inside of a building all kinds of.

Scot:
[10:32] All kinds of all kinds of very strange glitches.

[10:40] Well it’s January and you know what that means it is a vent time.

Jason:
[10:43] It is event time and you are you always speak it a lot of these January events walk us through what.

Scot:
[10:47] These generally events walk us through what you have coming.

Jason:
[12:56] Yeah I’m going to miss standing outside the Javits Center and freezing pelting rain and sleet trying to get a cabin and is available and rolling a suitcase through all that misery.

Scot:
[13:28] The thing I’d never gotten about in RF and I do love it.

Jason:
[13:31] It because you and I get to go see all our buddies.

Scot:
[13:33] Buddy’s it’s over the weekend and like some of the best contents on like Saturday and Sunday and.

Jason:
[13:36] And then like some of the best contents on like Saturday and Sunday and it’s just like come on guys.
I know that does that but they’re kind of like we’re retail we’re going to have a weekend meeting just like.

Scot:
[14:36] I think they all attack the opposite side of that argument.

Jason:
[14:37] All attack the opposite side of that argument is your not often do and I think they would show that.

Scot:
[14:42] Retail is flexible and able to change with the times.

Jason:
[14:43] Bull and able to change with the Times by getting rid of the weekend hours.
Covid come game no choice.

Scot:
[15:05] Yeah usually we try to.

Jason:
[15:06] We try to wrap it up we do a recap and predictions in one show at all.

Scot:
[15:10] And show it always is.

Jason:
[15:11] Is an hour and a half which is a little long so this.

Scot:
[15:15] This time we’re going to split it up.

Jason:
[15:16] We’re going to cover a bit of a recap and some news here today and kind of put a bow on 20/20 and then next week we’ll put our big prediction show.

Scot:
[15:30] Bomb this is a.

Jason:
[15:32] To remind folks that we love 5 star ratings so.

Scot:
[15:37] Go to your favorite podcast listener and leave us sir.

Jason:
[15:37] Favorite podcast listener and leave us some ratings that would be great.

Scot:
[15:43] So Jason let’s kick.

Jason:
[15:44] Off the recap of the year with our favorite topic ship again what has what’s your conclusion for how that went I saw Amazon.

Scot:
[15:52] I saw Amazon’s some stuff out there what did we learn.

Jason:
[15:54] Without their what did we learn from them.

Scot:
[17:13] The it is I wish there was more public data out there.

Jason:
[17:17] There was more public data out there.
Feels like what happened is FedEx and UPS by being really stringent on what they took they were able to get most of their deliveries done you know so there are some some cases where they.

Scot:
[17:32] So there are some some cases where they miss some things but what I think that happened is because she.

Jason:
[17:37] Happened is because shippers.

Scot:
[17:41] Get as much through those two channels they really flooded.

Jason:
[17:42] They really flooded USPS so you know.

Scot:
[17:45] There’s no unfortunately no the USPS.

Jason:
[17:47] No the USPS doesn’t kind of generate a report that says hey look how many.

Scot:
[17:49] Says hey look how many packages we missed but since you and I were really well known for.

Jason:
[17:53] I were really well known for ship again and we got a lot of reports that there were some things that got there really.

Scot:
[17:58] No individually we had some stuff ordered in early December that didn’t.

Jason:
[17:58] Really we had some stuff ordered in early December that didn’t show up until literally.
A timeframe I had done a calculation that would be somewhere between 8 to 12 million packages with my guess that ended up late they’re the folks that ship.
We had them on and they talked about their their tracker so if you go look at that they still have it up you can see that the the.

Scot:
[18:26] Days to ship got up as high as.

Jason:
[18:27] Is kind of mid 627 so six and a half days.

Scot:
[18:33] That’s I think that’s actually short because.

Jason:
[18:36] Is when you look at the time it was taking you know days to just.

Scot:
[18:40] Days to just get the tracking numbers entered in the system.

Jason:
[18:43] System on the front end of the whole process and even a lot of times on the back end as well so we would we’d have a package delivered and then three days later I get.

Scot:
[18:46] You know on the back end as well so we would we’d have a package delivered and then three days later I’ll get a notification from the USPS.

Jason:
[18:53] It had been delivered so it seems like their infrastructure not only their their Hardware infrastructure with trucks and whatnot was.

Scot:
[18:56] That not only their their Hardware infrastructure with trucks and whatnot was maxed out but but off definitely the.

Jason:
[19:02] The software side as.

Scot:
[19:06] That was interesting.

Jason:
[19:07] Is interesting and then that teases up for return again.

Scot:
[19:10] In which I guess we’ll talk.

Jason:
[19:11] Talk about on the next show possibly if that’s one of our predictions maybe it is maybe it isn’t anything else you saw on ship again.

Scot:
[22:00] Yeah.

Jason:
[22:00] It’s super frustrating if something is late and it’s just.

Scot:
[22:01] Being if something is late and it’s just kind of like the.

Jason:
[22:05] The shipper has not uploaded the information nearest like what you have.

Scot:
[22:06] Uploaded the information nearest like what you haven’t your go-to as consumer is told me this thing shipped but I’m going to the tracking and it’s not looking like.

Jason:
[22:10] Is consumer is told me this thing shipped but I’m going to the tracking and it’s not looking like anything’s.

Scot:
[22:19] Of course sweetie you have been updating clients on kind of the year-end summary walk.

Jason:
[22:20] So we you have been updating clients on kind of the year-end summary walk us through some of the highlights.

[29:52] One thing I would add is and you may be going there the the shape of the holiday so if we kind of kick off Thanksgiving.
Normally have.

Scot:
[30:02] Have this kind of.

Jason:
[30:03] This kind of.

Scot:
[30:05] You know V shape so you have this.

Jason:
[30:07] Like at the beginning then you have this kind of lull around the 12th to 15th.

Scot:
[30:08] Then you have this kind of lull around the 12th to 15th of December and then you have like what I.

Jason:
[30:13] The Precast procrastinator pop this year it was.

Scot:
[30:15] Pop this year it was like a down sloping line so we didn’t have that.

Jason:
[30:19] That kind of shape to the v in the e-commerce side of things and I think that was.

Scot:
[30:23] And I think that was I think you I played a role in that because we educated people on ship again we saved Christmas jacent.

Jason:
[30:27] People on ship again we saved Christmas jacent.

Scot:
[30:35] Gradually since you so we.

Jason:
[30:36] We think hopefully we know in all seriousness hopefully we did help out by alerting people.

Scot:
[30:41] By alerting people to shop early.

Jason:
[30:42] Earlier because.

Scot:
[30:45] I think we ended up at last count I think.

Jason:
[30:48] We end up with like 30 or 40 public.

Scot:
[30:49] Applications really in these are pretty material ones like today today’s show and stuff.

Jason:
[30:54] Picked up ship again so hopefully it did play a role.

Scot:
[30:55] So hopefully it did play a role in not causing that that back-end surge to really.

Jason:
[31:11] Amongst us the two of us here.

[36:42] Yeah and I’ll be watching for when Amazon.

Scot:
[36:43] Be watching for when Amazon announces Q4 so if the master.

Jason:
[36:47] Hugh for so if the MasterCard data’s right and Amazon grew that fast that could be pretty surprising I think to everybody so that’s going.

Scot:
[36:53] Pretty surprising I think to everybody so that’s going to be interesting to see.

Jason:
[36:57] They benefited from it and you know where Etsy and zup and Shopify so we’ll be reporting on all that as it comes out.

Scot:
[37:40] Did I see you too.

Jason:
[37:41] Tweet over the holiday that you wrote some code to.

Scot:
[37:42] They that you wrote some code to pull this.

Jason:
[37:46] Good news.

Scot:
[37:47] Cloud Jason.

Jason:
[40:08] You’ll have this running on your watch you can press a button on your watch and tell us how the how the Department of Commerce day.

Scot:
[40:21] Okay that’ll be your.

Jason:
[40:21] Okay that’ll be your 2022.

Scot:
[40:45] Anything.

Jason:
[41:24] Yeah it’s going to be a fascinating Year from that perspective.

Scot:
[41:27] Let’s jump into some news it wouldn’t be the Jason Scott show without someone.

Jason:
[41:30] The Jason Scott show without some.

[41:45] Natsu in true fashioned we in the.

Scot:
[41:45] In true fashion we in the chip Again part of the show we.

Jason:
[41:49] We did talk a little bit about some of the news.

Scot:
[41:52] News out of Amazon.

Jason:
[41:53] On but there’s been a lot more.

Scot:
[41:56] The ones I saw that I wanted to get your hot take on.

Jason:
[41:57] So that I wanted to get your hot take on I think it was.

Scot:
[42:00] I think it was two or three years ago Amazon partnered with let’s see Berkshire.

Jason:
[42:01] Is on partnered with let’s see Berkshire Hathaway and was at JP Morgan and they were going to do this kind of Trifecta go solve Health Care thing and it was called even and I know.

Scot:
[42:08] Trifecta go solve Health Care thing and it was called even and I noticed as a scene BC junkie the big news I think it is.

Jason:
[42:14] The big news I think it was last week was that they have Unwound that effort and then you’ve been talking about.

Scot:
[42:23] And you’ve been talking about how Walmart is kind of got its eyes.

Jason:
[42:25] Art is kind of got its eyes on this the same kind of area what’s your take on that.

[44:51] Did you see any other interesting Amazon news.

[45:59] Wow.

Scot:
[46:02] There was a lot of noise about.

Jason:
[46:03] There was a lot of noise about Shopify and Amazon working on a kind of a inside effort to counteract their thing in fact someone said you know besos is highly engaged.

Scot:
[46:11] Inside effort to counteract their thing in fact someone said you know besos is highly engaged and digging into that did you read that.

Jason:
[46:20] And what you make of it.

Scot:
[47:19] Design Web Store it was confusing because everyone everyone called it a dip us.

Jason:
[47:19] It was confusing because everyone everyone called it if us.

[48:17] It’s tricky because yeah maybe.

Scot:
[48:20] Yeah maybe we’ll talk about this let’s save it for the picture.

Jason:
[48:22] Diction check well well pile on the teases yet.

Scot:
[55:33] Then sort of these t-shirts meant to be like undershirts or.

Jason:
[55:34] Is t-shirts meant to be like undershirts or.

Scot:
[55:37] We’ll get something printed on them or how to.

Jason:
[55:38] Printed on them or how does that work.

[56:10] Awesome and then.

Scot:
[56:12] Lidar on the iPhone is on the back of the phone.

Jason:
[56:13] Are on the iPhone is on the back of the phone so are you having to kind of like.

Scot:
[56:18] Mounted on a tripod and stand in front of it while someone lines it up early.

Jason:
[56:19] In stand in front of it while someone lines it up / like how did you.

Scot:
[56:23] All that off because you can’t really do a.

Jason:
[57:58] So not only does Jeff have your picture.

Scot:
[57:59] So not only does Jeff have your picture he.

Jason:
[58:27] Yeah.

Scot:
[58:28] That’s crazy oh sidebar it is a very sad day for Jeff he is no longer the richest man.

Jason:
[58:44] It is yeah if I had to go if I had to take one of my favorite.

Scot:
[58:45] Had to go if I had to take one of my favorite Billionaire’s to a deserted island though it probably be long so I’m excited.

Jason:
[58:49] Alonzo I’m excited for.

[58:57] Yeah Jeff is comes across as kind of Will Graham.

Scot:
[59:05] Any other Amazon news before we.

Jason:
[59:08] News before we head to some other news.

Scot:
[1:00:02] Yeah we’re converting.

Jason:
[1:00:03] Hurting malls in to.

Scot:
[1:00:04] Vomits understood it’s like this huge shift of things happening in.

Jason:
[1:00:08] All these.

[1:01:12] Good did you did you put him in the little cart and does it.

Scot:
[1:01:13] Did you put him in the little cart and does it like ring him up it’s like you just bought.

Jason:
[1:01:17] Son you bought a child.

Scot:
[1:01:53] Rick.

[1:05:21] They’re probably running it.

Jason:
[1:05:22] In the background and they’ll do that that’s good because they can check it against the cart.

[1:06:48] You know when you do these machine learning algorithms to so what.

Scot:
[1:06:49] These machine learning algorithms to so what they’re probably doing is recording from the.

Jason:
[1:06:53] And then they have the cart is the source of Truth and then they can go run you know 8,000 simulations of the sea.

Scot:
[1:06:59] Actions over the ceiling data and and it will learn the.

Jason:
[1:07:01] Learn the machine learning algorithm will use the cart data as the thing to learn.
Why they need that that one piece of data and they don’t need it for very long either they could still have some Target of 99.9% accuracy or.

Scot:
[1:07:10] Piece of data and they don’t need it for very long either they could still have some Target of 99.9% accuracy or whatever it is and so you could see.
Maybe a thousand carts that have enough data that they didn’t take the cart part out and then trust the.

[1:07:43] Having gone on one of these visits I’d bet they did.

Jason:
[1:07:43] On one of these visits I’d bet they didn’t climb up into the shelves and pull off the digital fact aguirre’s and figure out.

Scot:
[1:07:50] Out where they went and all the all the things that retailgeek.

Jason:
[1:08:23] Our cameras.
Uh cool coming out of Amazon news one of my weird Hobbies.

Scot:
[1:08:32] Is not keyboarding.

Jason:
[1:08:34] Love to watch read s ones and follow the road.

Scot:
[1:08:35] Watch read s ones and follow the road shows for folks that have so to roadshows are live a lot of people aren’t aware that when you go public when you start your Roadshow.

Jason:
[1:08:43] Aren’t aware that when you go public when you start your Roadshow which is usually closed outside of covid imagine this is all being done by Zoom.

Scot:
[1:08:52] But you actually put it up on this public website.

Jason:
[1:08:54] Retail Roadshow in right now.

Scot:
[1:08:56] Now there’s two that I think listeners would find interesting there’s Poshmark and back.

Jason:
[1:08:58] Find interesting there’s Poshmark and Petco so those are really good to watch and strongly recommend them so the only be up there are typically four seven to 10 days so.

Scot:
[1:09:02] To watch and strongly recommend them so the only be up there are typically four seven to 10 days so this one.

Jason:
[1:09:12] Sid strongly recommend checking that out.

Scot:
[1:09:15] Um as an entrepreneur I love watching these because they’re kind of the ultimate pitches if you will.

Jason:
[1:09:22] These are companies that are obviously pretty large they’re either.

Scot:
[1:09:25] There are hundreds of millions if not billions.

Jason:
[1:09:26] Is not billions of dollars in size.

Scot:
[1:09:29] Always learn something about how they pitch their company how they talk about it how they.

Jason:
[1:09:32] About it how they frame things so I like it from a nacho real perspective.

Scot:
[1:09:36] Factor but then I always.

Jason:
[1:09:37] Learn something about cohorts or new category.

Scot:
[1:09:43] How they talk about subscriptions there’s always a ton to learn.

Jason:
[1:09:45] Learn from this I strongly recommend.

Scot:
[1:09:47] Listeners and then you send me a really cool deck tell me about this consumer Trends deck that you.

[1:11:56] VC now so maybe maybe she’ll add some more content liven it up Shake It Up especially when she hears that.

Jason:
[1:12:02] Show you when she hears that you switched a farmer.

Scot:
[1:12:05] That’s going to be a shot across the bow for.

[1:12:42] Yeah and 250 episodes we really appreciate everyone’s support we wouldn’t be doing this if.

Jason:
[1:12:45] Everyone’s support we wouldn’t be doing this if we didn’t have really engaged listeners we love all the feedback we get from you guys and really appreciate it and looking forward to another great year of.

Scot:
[1:12:49] The engage listeners we love all the feedback we get from you guys and really appreciate it and looking forward to another great year of Commerce.

Jason:
Happy Commercing!